2026 House Forecast
2026 Elections
Forecasts
Who will win the House in November?
This page hosts the 2026 SnoutCounter House forecast. A blue wave in the House is widely expected as Trump’s approval continues to crater and sentiment on the economy and the direction of the country worsens. Despite extensive mid-decade redistricting, which has generally benefited Republicans, Democrats are still favored to win the House.
You can read about how the model that powers this forecast works here. The source code is publicly available on GitHub.
Below you can find a map of seat chances and projections, as well as some overall summary stats.
The histogram below displays seat outcomes of all 20,000 simulations drawn from the model’s posterior distribution.
Below you can find a table displaying the output of the House model, including some additional information not shown above.
And below, you can find time series charts showing how the forecast has changed over time.