SnoutCounter is a poll aggregation site compiling polling averages on figure approval, favorability, and electoral intent. It currently tracks presidential approval (including approval on specific issues) and generic ballot. I also plan on using this site to host other poll aggregates, such as predictive models for elections and potentially other statistical modeling projects unrelated to politics.

Methodology

SnoutCounter aggregates polling data via a weighted average. All scientific polls conducted by professional pollsters included in the relevant dataset are included in the aggregation, with the exception of polls conducted by :banned pollsters. All polls are collected manually. I generally check the Silver Bulletin, FiftyPlusOne, The New York Times, and Polling USA for anything I missed. In the case that a poll has surveyed two samples of different population types (for example, one likely voter sample and one registered voter sample), we only use the results of one of these samples being surveyed. "All adult" samples are preferred to registered voter samples, and registered voter samples are preferred to likely voter samples, for the various presidential approval averages. When measuring job approval among registered voters, polls that draw from a sample of all adults, but include crosstab results for registered voters, are included - specifically the results for the registered voter sample. For the generic ballot, likely voter samples are preferred to register voter samples are preferred to "all adult" samples. Tracking polls in our dataset are dynamically selected and weeded out such that all tracking polls from the same pollster are non-overlapping in fielding dates; I always include the most recent tracking poll from each pollster. Our weights are determined by the following four factors:

All these weights are combined into a final weight, calculated as the product of these four weights. The weights are normalized to sum to 1. This is then used to calculate a weighted average for each rating or variable we are trying to measure, and for each day. The weighted standard deviation is also calculated for each day and used to determine :confidence intervals.

In addition to these weights, I apply four different adjustments to each poll result, each of them calculated by a :mixed effects model. These adjustments are calculated relative to the average calculated from the previous steps. The adjustments are as follows:

These adjustments are summed to get the total adjustment for each poll, which is then added to measured approvals/disapprovals or two-party horse race estimates. After these adjustments are applied, the weighted average and confidence intervals are recalculated to get the final average for each rating/variable.

Updates

:Click to expand for a log of updates prior to the methodological overhaul conducted in January 2026.

Data Download

You can download the polling data used in SnoutCounter averages at the links below.

Acknowledgments & Support

Data

While the polling data is collected manually, the datasets collected by Silver Bulletin, FiftyPlusOne, The New York Times, RealClearPolitics, and Polling USA have made this work significantly easier for myself. Pollser ratings from the Silver Bulletin.

Site Design Tools

Nutshell by Nicky Case.

California Gothic font by Matt Lag.

IBM Plex Sans font can be found at Google Fonts.

Support

If you want to, you can throw money at me on Ko-Fi.

:x banned pollsters

Some polling outfits are banned from use by SnoutCounter for aggregation. The following pollsters are banned from SnoutCounter for methodological misconduct, lack of methodological transparency, and/or other methodological issues.

Additionally, the following pollsters are banned for having received an 'F' quality rating from the Silver Bulletin.

:x 538

RIP :(

:x pre overhaul updates